California almond growers produced a crop this year that will shatter all previous records, possibly by as much as 300 million pounds.
After surpassing the billion-pound mark for the first time ever just eight years ago, the state’s growers are forecasting a harvest of a little less than 2 billion pounds of almonds this year. But no one seems to be particularly concerned about finding markets for the sixth record-breaking crop in the last 10 years.
"Sure we can sell it, the demand for almonds is so good. I don’t know if we’ll reach 1.95 billion pounds, but it’s bigger than any crop to date. The record was 1.65 billion pounds in 2008, and we had 1.62 billion last year. This one is definitely much bigger; this is 300 million pounds more than the crop of 2008," said Scott Phippen, who grows, handles, packs and ships almonds in the Manteca area of San Joaquin County.
California produces roughly 80 percent of the world’s almonds and demand for almonds as a healthy food continues to increase worldwide.
"The global economy is a huge part of our business. We export more than half of our crop. Right now the market is very stable. The handlers are booked through the end of November, so there are fewer offers being made. It will keep the prices strong at least until the 1st of December, and maybe longer," Phippen said.
Almond growers are in the enviable position of producing what China wants to buy, rather than what China wants to produce.
"We’ve got a large crop. It’s the largest crop ever. The demand is there with the emerging middle class in the various countries that we’ve targeted, especially China and India," said Bob Curtis, Almond Board of California associate director of agricultural affairs.
The Almond Board of California has identified China and India as the two top priority development markets. China has already passed Germany as the No. 1 export market for California almonds, while India has made its way into the top five.
"The middle class in China is about as big as the population of the U.S., and they like to eat almonds. The U.S. and Europe are also increasing consumption significantly. Prices are good. They are better than they were last year at this time," said Dan Cummings, whose family has been growing almonds in the Sacramento Valley since the 1920s.
A few years ago, the Almond Board of California sent a delegation of growers, handlers and researchers to China to assess both the potential production and the demand for almonds.
"I went to China as part of a delegation and we concluded they are not a production threat," Cummings said.
That leaves California almond growers as the dominant player in the world market.
"Six hundred miles of valley in California and we produce 80 percent of the world supply of almonds. Four counties in California produce half the almonds in the world—Kern, Fresno, Stanislaus and Merced," Cummings said.
Acreage has been steadily increasing, but a major reason for the larger crop this year, and for the recent string of records, is that almond growers are getting better at what they do.
"We’re going to do 2,600 pounds an acre, which is a record. We’re using better varieties, planting trees closer together and using better irrigation and fertilization practices. And almond production has moved down south where the yields are even better," Cummings said.
This year, growers faced the challenge of cool weather that delayed harvest in some areas until after the first rains came.
Cummings usually plans to shake the first nuts from the trees around Sept. 10. Last year, unusually cool weather delayed that first shake until Sept. 21. And this year, the even cooler weather delayed the first shake until Sept. 30. That gave time for the first early fall rains to come, and come they did.
"What’s different about this year is we had two inches of rainfall in six days from Oct. 5 to Oct. 10. We still had 35 percent of the crop out in the field," Cummings said.
Three weeks into October, Cummings had some wet, late-harvested nuts spread out to dry on a large stretch of ground next to an orchard in the Hamilton City area of Glenn County.
"We’re spreading them out on the ground and hoping the sun or north wind dries them out. We’ve done this the last three years, but hadn’t done it for 15 years before that. Once you get them dried a little, you can hold them out in the field a couple months," Cummings said.
As he waited for his handler to come by to discuss the condition of the nuts, Cummings picked up a Carmel variety almond from the ground, peeled off the hull, cracked it open, took a bite and guessed the moisture was still at 13 percent, give or take a point.
Moisture has been a challenge this year in most areas of almond production.
"Since the rain, we’ve been fighting moist almonds. Anything over 5 percent moisture is too high, and when you get over 7 percent you have to fight mold. You have to get below 7 percent and anything above 5 percent is going to be excess moisture," said Jim Jasper, who grows, hulls and shells almonds in Stanislaus County.
The premium Nonpareil nuts were already harvested when the rains came, and the weather in the San Joaquin Valley has cooperated while the pollinator varieties are harvested and dried.
"The weather has been perfect since the rain and we had a week notice before the rain. When you know the rain is coming, you harvest the nuts already on the ground and leave the rest on the trees. Keep the orchard floor clean, and after you shake, sweep and pick up the almonds and leave them in the middle of the rows spread out to let the sun and air get to them," Jasper said.
Many Sacramento Valley almond growers had to contend with rains that came while nuts were still on the trees.
"In Butte County, we’re not done because it’s been wet—there were still nuts out there three weeks into October. Most growers would like to be done by the first week in October. As you get later, the days get shorter, there’s more dew and it’s harder to dry the nuts. The harvest to begin with was two or three weeks late this year, then we got hit with the rain," said Joe Connell, University of California Cooperative Extension farm advisor in Butte County.
Growers in the San Joaquin Valley also had to adjust to weather conditions that made this year’s crop much later than usual.
"The crop was extremely late. Last year we were late and we’re at least a week later this year. There can be a problem with orchard access for harvest," Phippen said.
The quality of the nuts, however, should remain high despite the challenging weather conditions.
"The Nonpareils and other soft-shell varieties were done first, so the quality still looks good," Connell said.
Once the nuts are off the trees, they need to be moved to open areas where they can be dried and protected. After they are dry enough, the nuts are covered in piles with clear tarp and vented, to allow the moisture to escape until the hullers and shellers have an opening.
"We want to move through the harvest as quickly as possible and then move the nuts to an open area where they can be protected and, if need be, fumigated to prevent worm damage," Connell said.
It figures to become a trend that some almond growers will have to stockpile nuts longer than in the past, because the crops have become too large for the handlers to process in a short time.
"The hullers’ and shellers’ capacity hasn’t increased nearly as much as the crop. In 2008 in late December and early January, the hullers and shellers were still going. We will be going later this year; it could be February. We won’t know the size of this crop until after the first of the year. With the nuts stockpiled, if we do it correctly we don’t need it all hulled and shelled at once. Instead of three or four months, the plants can operate five or six months. As long as it’s dry enough going in, we can stockpile them for months," Phippen said.
The harvest record being set this year does not figure to last long, because there are huge potential markets for almonds in the emerging economies.
"We exported almost 1.2 billion pounds of almonds, a majority of it to newer markets like China, Hong Kong and India. These countries are taking a real liking to California nuts, especially almonds. There’s potential to grow over there. We’re getting a huge harvest, and a lot of it is going overseas," said Kristy Plattner, U.S. Department of Agriculture economist.
Almond exports to China and India increased 25 percent last year and both Almond Board and USDA economists say they expect almond shipments to China and other emerging economies to enjoyed sustained, strong growth.
"Global almond exports in 2011/12 are forecast to continue expanding at the rate of more than 10 percent, augmented by record production," said Tony Halstead, USDA economist. "Shipments to China, Hong Kong and Vietnam have grown quickly on the snack’s popularity, and are expected to continue rising as food manufacturers add almonds as an ingredient."
(Bob Johnson is a reporter in Magalia. He may be contacted at bjohn11135@aol.com.)